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San Diego Storm Season Forecast

Annual storm risk index for San Diego County. Published by Cal Coast Water Damage based on 19 years of restoration data. Updated monthly during storm season.

Annual Storm Damage Risk by Month

Based on Cal Coast's actual restoration call volume, January and December carry the highest storm damage risk for San Diego homes. May through September are the lowest-risk months.

Jan9.2
Feb8.4
Mar6.8
Apr4.2
May2.1
Jun1.8
Jul1.9
Aug2.0
Sep2.6
Oct4.1
Nov5.9
Dec9.7
Low (1-2)
Moderate (3-5)
High (6-8)
Severe (9-10)

Scale: 1 (minimal) to 10 (severe). Index value represents normalized restoration call volume relative to annual average.

2026-2027 Outlook

El Niño cycle indicators suggest moderate-to-elevated storm activity for the 2026-2027 winter season. Atmospheric river events are forecast at 12-18% above the 10-year average for San Diego County.

Key dates to watch: Late December 2026 and mid-January 2027 typically show peak atmospheric river activity. Pre-season home prep is recommended by November.

Neighborhood Vulnerability Index

Storm damage call volume varies significantly across San Diego neighborhoods based on housing age, drainage infrastructure, tree canopy, and elevation.

Pacific Beach

High flood risk in low-lying areas. Aging stormwater infrastructure.

High Risk

Mission Valley

San Diego River flood plain. Highest historical claim density.

High Risk

Ocean Beach

Coastal exposure plus aging infrastructure.

High Risk

La Jolla

Coastal exposure but better drainage. Hillside slide risk in extreme events.

Moderate Risk

Encinitas / Cardiff

Bluff erosion risk. Coastal storm exposure.

Moderate Risk

Chula Vista

Wide variance. Eastlake / new construction lower risk; older South Bay homes elevated.

Moderate Risk

Carlsbad (newer tracts)

Modern drainage and newer construction. Lower historical claim density.

Lower Risk

Rancho Bernardo

Inland and elevated. Lower flood exposure.

Lower Risk

Scripps Ranch / 4S Ranch

Newer construction, modern stormwater management.

Lower Risk

Pre-Storm Season Prep Checklist

  • Inspect your roof | check for loose shingles, damaged flashing, clear gutters
  • Clear drainage | downspouts direct water away from foundation
  • Trim trees | remove dead branches before winds arrive
  • Test sump pumps | service before peak rainfall
  • Caulk windows | check for cracks where water could intrude
  • Photograph property | pre-storm documentation supports insurance claims
  • Save Cal Coast's number | 619-320-2700 for 24/7 storm response

Storm damage today?

We target a response within 60 minutes anywhere in San Diego County, 24/7, year-round.

Call 619-320-2700